NEW PARADIGM

Re-Live: New Economy Short Cut with Maja Göpel, Achim Wambach and Jens Südekum

Together with the think tank dIpart, the Forum New Economy has conducted a new representative survey of Germans on their attitudes to key economic issues. Rewatch the discussion of the results here.

BY

FORUM NEW ECONOMY

PUBLISHED

24. JANUARY 2025

READING TIME

5 MIN

How can the economy overcome the crisis? Less state, more market? Industrial policy – only better? And what can be done about the lack of acceptance of climate policy?  All these questions are at the heart of the Bundestag election campaign. But what do people in the country want?

In a major survey, we tested such positions on economic policy, climate, debt and inequality, as well as the appeal of old and new economic narratives. In our New Economy Short Cut on 5 February 2025, we discussed the survey results with Jens Südekum, Professor of Economics at the University of Duisburg, Maja Göpel, transformation researcher and founder of ‚Mission Wertvoll‘ and Achim Wambach, President of the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research. The event was held in German. (A translation will be provided shortly in the form of English subtitles.)

There can no longer be any talk of an ‘economic election campaign’ at the moment. Everything revolves around migration and AfD cooperation. Although there are enough other topics to discuss. The traffic light coalition failed not least because of opposing economic policy paradigms – embodied by Christian Lindner and Robert Habeck. The election manifestos of the CDU/CSU and FDP also focus on more market and less state, while the others (SPD and Greens) want the opposite. The election campaign would therefore be an opportunity for an objective debate on competing economic policy concepts.

All participants in the discussion agreed that there seems to be a mismatch between a heated but superficially conducted, polarizing election campaign and the poll results, which suggest a certain unity among the population with regard to economic policy narratives. Maja Göpel emphasized that this divergence between reporting on certain topics, including quick polls, and more detailed and in-depth qualitative studies on the same issues is also documented by other studies. According to Achim Wambach, the reason for the unanimity could also lie in the selection and nature of the questions, as they are a test of narratives that avoid conflict issues and mix instruments (debt) and goals (climate policy).

“The poll results give the impression that the world is more beautiful than it actually is when I look at the course of the election campaign.”
Jens Südekum

A central topic of the survey, which was also discussed in detail in the short cut, was the direction of climate policy. According to Jens Südekum, the main argument against a climate policy based purely on a CO2 price is the political economy argument of a lack of political credibility: a price at an appropriate level will be difficult to enforce, as there is a great deal of heterogeneity among households and they have varying degrees of alternative options. And because people react particularly sensitively to costs and price shocks. This is also reflected in the survey results, in which around half agreed with the statement that politicians should make things that are harmful to the climate more expensive, but over 80% felt that these increases were unfair if there were no affordable alternatives.

Maja Göpel emphasized that a combination of climate money and public investment in (climate-friendly) infrastructure was therefore crucial. Achim Wambach, on the other hand, defended a CO2 price-based solution, as this would be much more efficient and cheaper than achieving the same goals through subsidies. In addition, general tax cuts are more effective than investment premiums, as the state cannot predict the direction in which the economy will develop. Jens Südekum, on the other hand, emphasized that investment premiums have the advantage over nominal tax cuts of having fewer deadweight effects.

Rewatch the whole discussion:

ABOUT NEW PARADIGM

KNOWLEDGE BASE

After decades of overly naive market belief, we urgently need new answers to the great challenges of our time. More so, we need a whole new paradigm to guide us. We collect everything about the people and the community who are dealing with the question of a new paradigm and who analyze the historical and present impact of paradigms and narratives – whether in new contributions, performances, books and events.

ARTICLE OVERVIEW