Newsletter: Do Germans want a new Agenda? Survey on national debt – even FDP supporters are open-minded

When the traffic light government collapsed in autumn, some people couldn’t wait to vote again. Now the first election posters are out, and you might think that it would have been better to take a little more time after all. ‘More for you, better for Germany’ is written on the posters, for example. Or: ‘Debt: Children are liable for their parents’. And the promises are not much more mature.

Of course it’s good when taxes fall. But which of the acute problems does that solve? The climate crisis? The China shock for industry? The trade turbulence caused by Donald Trump? And how many people would really suddenly be available to companies to solve the shortage of skilled labour if paid sick leave for employees or the ‘citizen’s allowance’ (Bürgergeld) was cut back?

It’s not even clear whether Germans want a kind of return to the days of Agenda 2010 – back to the market, when the state can’t manage many things. As the second wave of analysis of our major survey on Germans’ view on economic policy shows, Germans are not even as clearly opposed to national debt as the cliché suggests – and some people seem to assume during the election campaign.  

The saying that ‘we must not leave our children mountains of debt’ is still very popular. About 60 per cent agree with it. However, the counter-narrative, according to which ‘we must not leave our children a ruined planet’ – which is why it is also a good thing for the state to take on debt to finance investments in climate protection, schools or railroads  – is  now even more popular. Almost 70 per cent agree with it. What’s more, even among supporters of the FDP, a clear majority (60 per cent) agrees. This in turn could explain why the party has had so little success in the polls in its attempt to make a name for itself by sticking to the debt brake.

One possible interpretation: If we no longer speak of debt in the abstract, but the purpose is named, majorities are found. At least in the polls. Another interpretation: Germans are currently experiencing a paradigm shift in which the old slogans are still hanging on, but new ones are already beginning to take hold. This, in turn, is also reflected in political practice – for example, in the fact that reforming the debt brake is no longer considered taboo across party lines.

You can find more details on what Germans think about the sense and necessity of government debt here. A third wave of the survey analysis will follow shortly, focusing on what people in Germany think about industrial and climate policy, as well as the question of whether the inequality of income and wealth is still justified along meritocratic lines; or what better globalisation should look like. 

Mark your calendars for our next New Economy Short Cut on these very survey results on 5 February from 11.30 am – with Jens Südekum, Guntram Wolff and Maja Göpel. Invitations will follow shortly.

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