Forum newsletter: Coalition in uncertainty / Second Berlin Summit in June

Dear friends and colleagues, 

The prophecy seems clear: if the black-red federal government is unsuccessful, there is the threat of an AfD government after the next elections. This cannot be ruled out. This makes it all the more astonishing that those involved and observers seem to be pondering so little about what could dissuade people from voting for the AfD – apart from a tougher migration policy.

Even the findings are shaky. The AfD received a decisive boost in the polls in the last legislative period, when inflation reached ten percent in 2022. Migration was not a big issue then. Similar to the above-average number of people who voted for Donald Trump in the USA who also stated that they were suffering from inflation, many voters in Germany were apparently also drawn to the AfD because of inflation. Conversely, approval ratings did not drop last summer when the German “traffic light” government tightened asylum laws – which in turn seems to confirm research findings that such measures do not help against radical parties.

Precisely because it is a question of whether we are threatened with Trump-like conditions in a few years’ time, it would be urgent to determine causes and measures much more reliably now. There is a lot of research that shows that there are, of course, many reasons to vote for populist parties. However, according to all possible empirical evaluations – be it the Brexit vote, Trump or Europe’s right-wing populists – a deeper reason lies in the economic and social upheavals that reinforce people’s feeling of powerlessness. As was the case during the seemingly endless period of inflation three years ago. Or when it comes to the perceived threat of AI. Or about an economy that creates grotesquely powerful billionaires.

If this is true, tightening migration policy now will not do much to counter people’s resentment – as important as it is to protect everyone from attacks by people of any origin. This also casts doubt on the impact of other major projects of the prospective coalition partners. Lowering taxes will not resolve a deeper sense of powerlessness, nor will sticking to a climate policy that relies on making petrol and heating more expensive to change people’s behavior. The prospective coalition partners may then be planning something that will drive people to vote AfD rather than dissuade them from doing so. We need better answers to the real problems.

Investing the billions now planned in the financial package for all in schools, railroads and infrastructure could help a lot more. This would give people the chance to feel that politicians are solving real problems again instead of standing powerless in front of cracks in bridges (or in front of Donald Trump’s tariff policy). For example.

It’s high time to find out more about all of this – even when the German government is standing in a few weeks’ time. This is exactly what we will be trying to do at our second Berlin Summit in June: in a few smaller expert panels on June 11 and 12 and in a larger panel on June 13. More details in the coming weeks. To put your name down for  June 13 – just write an email to info@newforum.org.

Have a great weekend,

Thomas Fricke

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