Beyond Trump - the Video on the Berlin Declaration

Success proves right, they say – and even more so in the agitated media world with its herd mentality. We will see what that means in a few days’ time. Even if either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump are just a touch ahead, the result will be interpreted in no time as a confirmation of what he or she stands for (except of course for Donald Trump and his most embittered supporters, who are always successful and right anyway).

If Kamala Harris wins by just this margin, there is much to suggest that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), massive investments and subsidies in renewable energies, infrastructure and other things will quickly be interpreted as formulas for success – not just for America, but also for other countries where populists come up with simple answers. If Trump is ahead by a whisker, it will certainly be diagnosed that exactly what was once referred to as Bidenomics is no good after all. ‘The winner takes it all’, as the Americans say.

There is little to suggest that next Wednesday, the day after the US election, the basic diagnosis that populists are successful particularly in places where there have been economic upheavals – and people feel a loss of control – will suddenly be more or less correct. Which leads to the conclusion that it should be worth investing in such regions before they crash. Just as Joe Biden and his people tried to do with the IRA. Dozens of the world’s leading experts also agreed with this finding and recommendation at the Berlin Summit this spring – and how the Berlin Declaration came about can now also be seen in a new exclusive seven-minute Forum video.

It was already apparent at the time that none of this would work straight away – because large investments take time to reach people. And because an inflation shock intervened, which exacerbated the perceived loss of control. A great analysis of this can be read (and heard) in the New Yorker – under the title: “Bidenomics is starting to transform America. Why has no one noticed”.

But who knows: perhaps the effect of the IRA and others in key regions will be enough to give Kamala Harris the edge on Tuesday. Forum Fellow Robert Gold will evaluate this on the basis of actual voting behaviour in the swing states in the following days – and present it at our symposium on 19 November.

All of this will possibly help us to keep an eye on what can really be learnt from what the elections will reveal in the approaching frenzy of interpretation during and after the elections.

Incidentally, the Forum New Economy was launched five years ago yesterday. We will also be toasting this on 19 November. No matter who is elected in the USA (or not).