The Berlin Summit 2025: Migration & Democracy – The impact of migration policies on voting behaviour

A recurrent theme in the discussion was the normalization of xenophobic or exclusionary rhetoric. When democratic parties mimic the language and demands of far-right actors, they may unintentionally make previously fringe positions more acceptable. This can lead to a political climate where increasingly harsh measures are required to remain electorally competitive, fostering a “race to the bottom” in migration policy. Right-wing populist parties often benefit when migration becomes the dominant political issue. They can credibly claim ownership of the topic, having built their brand on anti-immigrant messaging for years. By contrast, when centrist parties shift their positions opportunistically, they often appear inauthentic or reactive, failing to regain trust. Rather than winning back voters, they thus appear to validate the populist framing of migration as a threat, which pushes the overall political discourse further to the right. 

The panel referenced the German context, where the AfD has used moments of crisis (e.g., the 2015 refugee influx, or recent debates over asylum policy) to expand its support. In response, parts of the CDU and SPD have hardened their positions. Yet, the AfD continues to grow in polls, particularly in eastern Germany, suggesting that co-opting the far-right’s agenda does not necessarily reduce their appeal. 

Several speakers argued for alternative approaches centered on narrative change and institutional reform. They emphasized the need for democratic parties to clearly differentiate themselves by presenting migration as manageable and socially beneficial when properly governed. This includes investing in integration, upholding human rights, and communicating the economic and demographic advantages of controlled migration. Participants also stressed the importance of addressing the underlying grievances that often drive anti-immigrant sentiment. These include housing shortages, labor market competition, and social insecurity. By framing these as structural challenges rather than blaming migrants, democratic parties can offer credible, inclusive policy responses. It was also pointed out that Europe must grapple with its deep-rooted xenophobia and foster a welcoming culture that attracts foreign workers. 

The discussion concluded that while adopting restrictive migration policies may offer short-term electoral gains in some contexts, the long-term risks for democratic cohesion and liberal values are significant. The strategy often reinforces far-right frames, undermines human rights commitments, and accelerates the fragmentation of the political center. Hence, democratic parties face a strategic dilemma: they must respond to public concerns over migration without validating exclusionary or xenophobic narratives.