THE STATE

Is Britain Undercounting the Impact of the Coronavirus?

According to new statistics, the death toll in the UK could be higher than previously estimated. The reason for this could be the calculations of deaths in nursing homes and private residences.

BY

THORE BECKMANN

PUBLISHED

19. JANUARY 2020

READING TIME

1 MIN

As Britain closes in on 100,000 reported cases of the coronavirus, new statistics from the government’s Office of National Statistics estimate the death toll of the coronavirus to be 10% higher than officially communicated. The official number of 12.107 deaths does not take into account the people dying in nursing homes and their own residences.

Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility argues that Britain’s economy could shrink by 35% in the second quarter. In addition to that, millions of people could lose their jobs.

Mr. Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, did not dismiss these estimations but argues that the economy could bounce back quickly when the lockdown was lifted. This stands in stark contrast to the belief of many economists. Simon Tilford, Research Director at the Forum New Economy, is quoted as follows in the New York Times:

“‘I don’t buy that the U.K. is going to recover as strongly as the O.B.R. data would suggest,’ said Simon Tilford, director of research at Forum New Economy, an economic research institute. ‘It assumes that a shock of this magnitude is not going to do any lasting damage to the economy.’

Making up for lost consumption, particularly in the services sector, would be difficult, said Mr. Tilford, who described the long-term projections as overly optimistic. The report assumes that it is ‘possible to put the economy into deep freeze and for it to jump straight back to life,’ he added.

The full article from The New York Times is here: Is Britain Undercounting the Human and Economic Toll of Coronavirus?

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