This is likely to be one of the hot topics in the election campaign debates: where should the money come from to pay for Corona induced damages, investments in climate, better schools and railways and, depending on party preference, a few tax giveaways? The recommendations of today’s leading international experts will dominate the second day of our eighth New Paradigm Workshop next week – on Tuesday, 26 May from nine in the morning to half past seven in the evening.
There were times when Germany was considered a role model when it came to environmental and climate protection. Today, the question is whether the country can manage the great transition to make everything climate-neutral by 2050 – or 2045. Patrick Graichen from Agora Energiewende will present how this could actually be achieved in the climate session. What the transformation of the car industry will mean for employment and value creation in Germany in the coming years – that is what the experts from Boston Consulting have estimated in a previously unpublished study, the results of which will be presented on the same panel. As well as estimates by Tom Krebs on how much would have to be publicly invested in the conversion of the industry to green hydrogen. Other panellists on the big question of whether Germany can manage the conversion: KfW chief economist Friederike Köhler-Geib and Laurence Tubiana from the European Climate Foundation. Chair: Carlo Jaeger of the Global Climate Forum.
Start of the Climate Challenge panel: on 26 May at 11 am.
More on the climate challenge.
And how will all this be paid for? In the afternoon, a major focus will be on the question of how to deal with debt after the Corona crisis – and how previous debt and fiscal rules would have to be reformed to achieve this. To kick things off, Mark Blyth of Brown University and Eric Lonergan of M&G Investments will present their Forum paper on how, in principle, rules could be established that would be better than the simple targets for deficits and debt that have dominated in recent decades, especially in Europe. Discussants: Jakob von Weizsäcker, Chief Economist at the Federal Ministry of Finance, Peter Bofinger from the University of Würzburg and Véronique Riches-Flores from Paris.
Start of the panel on a new framework for fiscal policy: 26 May at 2 pm.
What does this mean for the German debt brake? Answered by Philippa Sigl-Glöckner and colleagues in their study commissioned by the Forum on how, even without a major reform of the debt brake, more room for maneuver could be created so that the Finance Minister can do more than just prevent deficits, i.e. contribute to more prosperity in the country. The proposals presented by Michael Hüther from the IW Cologne and Jens Südekum from the University of Düsseldorf pursue similar goals. They will be discussed by Monika Schnitzer from the German Council of Economic Experts and Shahin Vallée from the DGAP.
The panel on the German debt brake will start on 26 May at 3 pm.
And for Europe’s deficit and debt rules? Macron advisor Philippe Martin, together with Xavier Ragot from the Paris OFCE and others, recently made a proposal on this. The reform proposal is considered a quasi-official French position – and will be put up for discussion on the third panel of the Fiscal Afternoon. Among the discussants are Thomas Westphal from the Federal Ministry of Finance, Guntram Wolff from the think tank Bruegel, Margit Schratzenstaller from the Austrian Fiscal Council and Annamaria Simonazzi from the Sapienza University in Rome. Chair: Martin Sandbu from the Financial Times. At the start of the panel, Sebastian Dullien from the IMK will present estimates of how the economy and government deficits are likely to develop if the governments in Berlin, Rome and Madrid, for example, were to switch to austerity more or less quickly now.
Start of the sessions on the reform of the European fiscal rules: on 26 May at 4.45 pm.
How to make a lot of money – or prevent someone from making it illegally: this is also the topic of the first session on Day 2, which will deal with the question of whether financial supervision does not need a completely new self-image after all the scandals surrounding Wirecard and others – a new paradigm beyond the old proximity to the praised financial markets. This is the suggestion of Gerhard Schick and Martin Hellwig. Afterwards, Jörg Kukies, State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Finance, and economist Daniela Gabor from Bristol will tell us whether they think it is a good idea. The moderator will be Olaf Storbeck from the FT, which was instrumental in triggering the Wirecard scandal. Start at 9 am.
Globalization and Behavioural Economics
A new addition to the programme: Harold James, who will give a short lecture on why Corona could be followed by a surprisingly new heyday of globalisation. Make a note for Day 2, 6.30 pm The insights into human behaviour that can be drawn from the Corona crisis will be presented by Nora Szech, a behavioural economist from the University of Karlsruhe.
Mehr zum Thema Globalisierung.